War in Ukraine, hunger in Africa - 1st April 2022

"War in Ukraine means hunger in Africa,” came the sobering announcement from Kristalina Georgieva, the International Monetary Fund's managing director. Africa's seen a surge in prices of wheat and other cereals as the Russian invasion of Ukraine knocked out supplies from the continent’s two main sources of staple foodstuffs.

The international sanctions imposed on Russia are further deepening the impacts for African economies, since Russia is Africa's main provider of fertiliser and fuel. The scramble for alternative supplies is, in turn, driving up energy costs.

In Nigeria, where manufacturers cannot rely on the nation’s intermittent energy supplies, 70 percent of businesses operate using diesel-powered generators, meaning rising fuel prices have further knock on effects.

Lagos baker Julius Adewale’s caught in the middle.

Julius Adewale: "Cost of production, it has increased immensely. So, they have to come together and also increase the price of bread by 40 percent to what it was before. A common man, that has not even eaten, you no expect him to buy bread or a loaf of bread for 700."

The issue’s keenly felt across the African continent, with people in Uganda used to paying 5,000 shillings for a week’s essentials seeing prices double.

Although Africa's largest oil producer, Nigeria lacks significant oil refining infrastructure and relies on fuel imports. While petrol is subsidised by the state, diesel and aviation fuel trade at market prices, and the recent sharp increases in these fuels has impacted food distribution.

Samuel Salau, a construction engineer, laments the increase.

Samuel Salau: "At the beginning of the year, diesel sell for, I think, about 270 to 280. Then, at a time, we having like 310. But at presently, within a month, it's left that level to about 600 and something plus. And so many industry is on diesel. Trucks that bring here food, so from the north to the south, are running on diesel. Even train runs on diesel."

Rising costs from Russia’s conflict will exacerbate increasing food insecurity. This won’t only impact regions of Ethiopia beset by conflict where 20 million people already rely on food aid, but ordinary tables around Africa.